The Russia-Iran-China Triangle - an Analysis (Part One)

     The past two decades have seen the emergence of a particularly strong and unified alliance between three very different nations. In the east lies the Peoples Republic of China, a surging power with over a billion people and a massive industrial base. To the north lies Russia, a country with severe internal problems, but an aggressive foreign policy. To the south lies Iran - expansionist, determined, cunning, and on a winning streak. These three countries comprise three different religions, three different groups of people, and three different ideologies. Yet, they are held together by a single force - common interest and realpolitik.
     Let us start with Iran. The Islamic Republic of Iran has many motives, but the first is shared with every other country on the planet - survival. Before 1979, Iran was essentially under the rule of foreign puppets for 200 years. Up until World War II, Iran was split between Russian and British zones of influence. After World War II, the Americans and British placed Reza Shah Pahlavi on the throne, who was widely viewed as a corrupt and despotic foreign proxy. This being considered, it is no small wonder that modern-day Iran is so paranoid of foreign influences - their recent history largely features Iran being humiliated by foreign powers. This brings us to Iran's second motive - expansion. For much of its history, Iran was the centerpiece of vast empires, often spanning from Turkey to India and from Armenia to Egypt. As a result, Iran views itself as merely reasserting its rightful hegemony over the Middle East, and it is hard to explain Iranian interventions in Syria and Yemen if one does not consider the expansionist aspect.
     The next item to consider with regards to Iran is who it views as the roadblock to achieving these goals. The answer is simple - the United States, and by extension, the Gulf States and Israel. Anti-American sentiment is high in Iran, as America is the main enforcer of the current status quo - which is not dominated by Iran, but instead dominated by various Sunni Arab states. Because of this, Iran views its job as to completely overthrow the American and Saudi led status quo. It will do this in any way possible - while it is simple to look at Iran's backing of the Houthis and Hezbollah as support for Shiites, Iran has also supported the Taliban in Afghanistan - despite the fact that the Taliban is a Sunni extremist group who wants to see the Shiites exterminated. Thus, we can conclusively say that Iran's primary goal is expansion, its primary opponent is the United States of America, and its primary method is destabilization.
   Next is Russia - whose various motives are as vast as the country itself. Russia's first interest is the same as all others - survival. As I have written about before, Russia views the eastward expansion of NATO as the greatest threat to the Russian people. To summarize, Russia had virtually everything east of the Vistula river under its control since 1814 - now, allies of NATO lie just a few hundred miles away from Moscow. Putin views this as a threat, which explains his military interventions in Georgia and Ukraine - if Georgia and Ukraine were in NATO, Article V would be invoked and World War III would start. Russia's secondary motive is to reclaim its superpower status which it lost in 1991, and this is evident by the glorification of Russia's superpower past by Vladimir Putin. Putin regularly puts on Soviet-style military parades, and is quoted as saying that he would reverse the collapse of the USSR if he could, despite the fact that he is ideologically a reactionary and is opposed to communism.
   Similarly to Iran, Russia views the United States as its main roadblock with regards to both of these goals. The US is the clear leader of NATO (being the most powerful and most populous country in the alliance), and as a result, NATO's eastward expansion is viewed as a primarily American effort. This problem is further exacerbated by the fact that Washington promised the USSR that NATO would not expand in 1990, a promise which has now been broken 13 times over. Furthermore, as the United States is the current dominant superpower of the world, Russia views the US as its main rival in its rise to superpower status. As a result, its actions are in line with that of Iran. Smashing the Middle Eastern status quo is an assured way to crack open US hegemony, and preserving pro-Russian leaders (like Assad) is a way to demonstrate American weakness.

  Lastly, and arguably most importantly, is the People's Republic of China. China's first motivation is still survival - and although there are no current, credible threats to China, Chinese history indicates an intense skepticism of the West. The 19th century saw the Opium Wars, where China's attempt to stop illegal Western imports of Opium resulted in war, and ended in Chinese humiliation for the next century. China's main motivation is to gain regional dominance over Asia. This is demonstrated in the OBOR (One Belt, One Road) initiative, where Chinese economic might is propping up infrastructure projects all over Asia. China's expansion into the South China Sea also shows this - but Chinese domination over Asia is not a new phenomena. China's name in Mandarin is 中国 - (zhong guo) which translates into "Middle Kingdom". China has historically viewed itself as the center of the world, and they were not exactly wrong in doing so - they were rich, powerful, and received tribute from practically every state they came into contact with.
     As mentioned previously, China's main methods to re-establish hegemony over Asia are primarily the OBOR initiative, as well as man-made islands in the South China Sea. The US does not oppose OBOR, but it does oppose China's campaign in the South China Sea, as well as China's smaller East China Sea campaign. However, the main point of confrontation between China and the United States is Thucydides trap - the simple reality that a rising power, more often than not, will come into conflict with an established power. This fundamental reality is what ultimately puts China at odds with the United States. 
    The Russia-Iran-China triangle is ultimately held together by a simple fact - all of these countries, in one way or another, view the United States as the primary roadblock standing in between them and their various national goals. While this may not seem like much, this simple glue between the three countries has allowed for Assad to continue in Syria, Kim Jong Un to continue in North Korea, and for Crimea to become part of Russia. This alliance has put the United States into a firm course of retreat in East Asia, and has driven a wedge between NATO and potential allies across the world. Therefore, this alliance must be stopped - not by brute military force, but by diplomatic maneuvering and statesmanship - methods of which I will propose in part two.