What Does Kim Jong Un Want?
A historic summit occurred earlier today, as President Moon Jae-in and Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un shook hands at the DMZ on April 27th. Kim and Moon briefly crossed into each other's countries, and Kim Jong Un even tried to break the ice, joking about how his missile tests had kept president Moon from sleeping. Nevertheless, important diplomatic progress was made as well. The 68 year long state of war between North and South (coupled with the 65 year armistice present since 1953) has been declared to be over. There are plans to turn the DMZ into a "peace zone", and both leaders pledged to work together for the "complete denuclearization" of the Korean peninsula. However, there is still one major question to be asked - why is North Korea doing this? Is it the pressure wrought on by the sanctions? Is it an attempt to deceive the United States?
I've said it numerous times - Kim Jong Un is no fool. He has multiple motives for acquiring and retaining nuclear weapons, with the first motive being to stay in power. North Korea has seen what has happened to both Libya and Iraq after they lost their respective WMD programs - and they have learned from Libya and Iraq. Nuclear weapons are the best guarantee against a US-backed attempt at regime change. No serious debate around attempting regime change in North Korea has occurred, mostly because North Korean nukes would devastate East Asia.
However, nuclear weapon's don't just help Kim Jong Un retain his hold on power. Kim has learned from the history of another country - the People's Republic of China - and another leader, Mao Zedong. As the Sino-Soviet split occurred in 1961, China found itself increasingly isolated on the global stage - widely viewed as a pariah. It is no coincidence, therefore, that China detonated its first atomic bomb in 1964, much to the dismay of both the United States and USSR. However, the nuclear test allowed China to flex its muscle, gaining allies in Africa and certain anti-USSR portions of the Eastern bloc. Furthermore, the nuclear test elevated China's status among the world powers, forcing the two existing superpowers to accept China onto the global stage. China's nuclear program paved the way for China's emergence, and the eventual rise of China as an economic and political titan.
This is exactly what Kim Jong Un hopes to do with his nuclear arsenal. Kim Jong Un is a communist only in name, and he has implemented several free-market reforms in order to benefit the economy of North Korea. With his nuclear weapons, Kim essentially is hoping that North Korea is viewed as a legitimate power and country. He wants to force his own acceptance onto the global stage, allowing him to open up more trade relations and political agreements. Of course, we also must mention North Korea's dream - unifying Korea on their own terms. In potential re-unification agreements, nuclear weapons could serve as a huge diplomatic bargaining chip, allowing for North Korea's leaders to hold onto their power in a potential united Korea.
Kim Jong Un is following a realist theory of foreign policy - that the international order is inherently anarchic and that the pursuit of power is ultimately what drives the national interests of nation-states. Therefore, he and his late father, Kim Jong II pursued power in the form of nuclear weapons, knowing the potential long-term benefits would outweigh the short term penalties. The recent summit at the DMZ only proves that Kim's strategy appears to be working, Without his nuclear weapons, Kim and North Korea would still likely be viewed as a backwards rump state, unable to enter serious negotiations with either South Korea or the United States. However, North Korean nukes serve as leverage, allowing for the North to enter negotiations with an obvious advantage, and allowing for the North to make major demands in exchange for de-nuclearization. The summit at the DMZ demonstrates this, and the US must tread carefully in future negotiations with the North. De-nuclearization is a necessity - but inadvertently conceding the entire Korean peninsula to China and North Korea would be a disaster.
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