Is Erdogan Doomed?

     President Erdogan of Turkey surprised many last week when he called a snap election for June 24, moving the poll up over a year and a half from their original slating of November 2019. A move such as this indicates confidence - Erdogan thinks that he and the AKP party can win in June. However, Erdogan's authoritarian rule has alienated much of Turkey's center and left-wing populace. Recent polling shows that the opposition is leading the AKP by 2.7%, which, while a small number, supposedly shows that Erdogan could potentially be brought down.
    Of course, the anti-Erdogan campaign faces a number of problems. The opposition is comprised of a coalition, with the Republican People's Party (CHP) serving as the main opposition. The CHP is a Kemalist party - meaning that they are primarily secularist in their outlook, much like the founder of Turkey, Mufasa Kemal Ataturk. The opposition also includes the People's Democratic Party (PDP), a left-wing party, and the center-right, civic-nationalist, Iyi party. In the event of an opposition victory, brokering a potential government between these three players could be difficult.
   Furthermore, there is the question of Russian meddling. Russia has warmed relations with Erdogan in the past year, and has even sold S-400 missile defense systems to Turkey. Putin has extremely strong interests vested in keeping Erdogan in power, and gradually wresting Turkey away from NATO. Erdogan has been nothing but an annoying thorn in the US side for most of his rule - and an Erdogan defeat would likely mean that Turkey draws closer to the United States. All of this indicates a legitimate threat of Russian meddling in Turkey - in fact, I would be thoroughly surprised if it did not happen.
  The last problem, and of course the biggest, is that Erdogan has essentially acted like a dictator. There is no guarantee that Erdogan won't alter the results of the election (as he allegedly did in the recent presidential powers referendum) or ignore the election entirely and hold onto power. Combining all of these factors, the chance of Erdogan actually being out of power in the near future is minimal. Erdogan is simply too deeply entrenched, and too authoritarian in order for there to be a reasonable chance of knocking Erdogan out of power.
  The US cannot pin its hopes on Erdogan being knocked out of power. Instead, we must realize the reality that Erdogan will be the leader of Turkey for the next several years, and we must act accordingly. Retaining and strengthening the alliance with Turkey is a must - Turkey is simply too valuable - and while allying with an authoritarian, Islamist strongman sounds unappealing, realpolitik trumps moral interests in foreign policy.