The Delusions of Pompeo and the Trump Administration in Iran

    Another day, and more impressively well thought-out, strategic realpolitik from our incredibly competent and well-qualified administration. More specifically, Mike Pompeo's absurd demands for the Iranian government when it comes to renegotiating the Iran deal. Pompeo made a speech in front of the Heritage Foundation demanding 12 conditions for any new Iran nuclear deal. Let us go through these demands and see what exactly entail and what makes this arguably the most utterly ridiculous proposal with regards to Iran since...well, since when Rex Tillerson proposed regime change last year, and when Pompeo proposed regime change in 2016.
    Pompeo's first demand is for the Iranians to declare to the International Atomic Energy Agency a "full account" of the prior military dimensions of the Iran deal and to "abandon this work in perpetuity". This is essentially the 2015 deal, in which Iran agreed to "not engage in activities which could contribute to the development of a nuclear bomb". The same nearly holds true for the second point - Pompeo wants Iran to close its heavy water reactor (which could be used to produce plutonium) when the deal in 2015 included an Iranian promise to re-engineer their heavy water reactor to make it impossible to produce plutonium. The Iranians had also included a provision in the 2015 deal which allowed for them to send spent fuel (which is what is reprocessed in order to manufacture plutonium) out of the country. Pompeo's third demand is also more strict - he wants IAEA inspectors to have full-time, unlimited access to Iranian nuclear facilities, whereas the 2015 deal required a 24 day warning. Keep in mind, however, that it takes months to enrich weapons-grade Uranium - this is not something you do in a few days - and that developing a nuclear bomb is quite difficult, as it essentially works by compressing a mass of Uranium into a super-critical state using precisely-timed high explosives - again, not something that is achievable in a few days of research and googling.
       Pompeo's fourth demand is that Iran stops developing ballistic missiles. However, Saudi Arabia is in possession of ballistic missiles and routinely purchases modern missiles from both the US and China. Iran has no interest in terminating its ballistic missile research - Iran will not let the Saudis have a missile monopoly in the middle east. Pompeo also wants Iran to stop developing "nuclear-capable missile systems" - but Iran has allegedly already put a satellite into orbit, and an orbit-capable rocket is also capable of carrying a warhead on a suborbital trajectory. Pompeo's fifth demand is that Iran release all citizens of America and her allies from captivity - a demand which, while valid, has absolutely nothing to do with preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
       Pompeo's first five demands are harsh (and likely would not be agreed upon), but at least exist within a realm of plausibility. The last seven, meanwhile, are rooted in illogical fallacy. Pompeo wants Iran to end its support for Hezbollah, pull all of its forces out of Syria, disarm Shiite militias in Iraq, end support for the Taliban, end the Iran Revolutionary Guards support for "militant" partners, end support for the Houthis, and end "threatening behavior against its neighbors". Essentially, Pompeo wants Iran to reverse all of the gains it has made over the last two decades in the Middle East, and give up on what has been the basis of her foreign policy since the revolution of 1979 - which would be nice, but will never happen. The idea that America can force Iran to give up Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon represents hubris at its finest. I am not sure what world Mike Pompeo is living in, but in this world, countries tend to not forget about the last two decades of their foreign policy, and instead act primarily in the interest of continuing and strengthening said foreign policy. Iran giving up Syria and Iraq is akin to the US closing its military bases in Europe in order for Ukraine to gain Crimea back from Russia. Moreover, Iran's support for its allies is often covert or unofficial - implying that any agreement involving Iran "ending" its support for her allies is going to be impossible to implement or enforce in practice. Overall, Pompeo's final seven demands are something most Americans in the state department wish for. I would love to see Iran stop funding Hezbollah, aiding Assad, and arming the Houthis. But this is unrealistic - and diplomats should recognize and compromise, not throw up a list of obscenely impractical demands.
      America's new policy in Iran is a trainwreck with no chance of success. By withdrawing from the Iran deal and killing off any chance of renegotiation, Trump has only encouraged Iran to restart its nuclear program. The Trump administration's Iranian "strategy" is a complete pipe-dream, and it is my sincere hope that America comes to its wits and analyzes the perspective of both sides in the future.