Can Nigeria Become a Powerhouse?

                                                                   Source: The Financial Times

   When one hears the word, "Nigeria", the emails from so-called "Nigerian Princes" immediately come to mind. Nigeria has a bad reputation in the west, not just because of the emails from scammers, but also because the country has been plagued by instability. In the late 1960s, Nigeria suffered through a bloody civil war which resulted in the death of around a million people. Furthermore, Nigeria has had coup attempts in 1966, 1975, 1976, 1985, 1990, and 1993. Corruption plagues the country, and the GDP per capita is relatively low at around 2000 dollars. Together, these elements imply that Nigeria is just another doomed, failed state in Africa. But, when one looks at the positive aspects of Nigeria, this is far from the truth.
    In terms of population, Nigeria is a giant - the highest in Africa and seventh largest on Earth. Nigeria's population is a staggering 195 million, and by 2050, Nigeria will overtake the United States as the 3rd largest country by population. This growth is not a phenomena unique to Nigeria - Uganda and Ethiopia are also projected to undergo population booms - but none will be as big as Nigeria. However, Nigeria does not have the geographical area of countries such as the United States or China. Nigeria is only the 31st largest country in the world by area, and this creates problems only experienced by a few other countries, specifically with regards to urbanization. Nigeria's largest city, Lagos, has 21 million people - roughly three times the size of New York City, which has resulted in crippling traffic and sanitation issues. The ridiculously large population of Nigeria has also caused economic issues, with the unemployment rate standing at almost 19%.
     Many of Nigeria's economic woes can be blamed on its dependence on oil. Oil makes up roughly 10% of Nigeria's economy, and makes up about 80% of Nigeria's exports. As oil is not a labor intensive resource - heavy and advanced equipment is much more valuable in oil production when compared to manpower - inequality and unemployment can easily arise. Industry is the solution to this problem. It requires both human labor and machines, and industrial exports can quickly grow a nation, as evidenced by the spectacular growth of China in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.
     So how can Nigeria industrialize? Industrialization requires good infrastructure - factories are useless if the electricity rarely works or the roads are so bad that it is difficult to ship products out - and the construction of good infrastructure requires good governance. Unfortunately, Nigeria is suffering from a debilitating corruption problem. Transparency International ranked Nigeria 148th in the world in their Corruption Perceptions Index - evidently, billions of dollars have been diverted away from development and into the pockets of cronies. Nigeria must deal with this corruption problem eventually - if they don't, their growth will be severely hampered. However, Nigeria still is developing her infrastructure, primarily by taking out cheap loans from China. Chinese money has fueled a development boom across Africa, and as the United States retreats, China is rushing to fill the void.
     Nigeria has problems, but it also has huge potential. This potential is most evident in Nigeria's booming film industry - Nollywood. In terms of annual film production, Nollywood is second only to India's Bollywood - and while the films are not the multi-million dollar behemoth blockbusters of the United States, the fact that Nollywood even exists is extremely impressive. Nollywood, along with Nigeria's huge population, signify that the 21st century in Africa will be heavily influenced by Nigeria. While Nigeria will not be as dominant as a country such as the United States in its own neighborhood, it can clearly become (and already is in some aspects) a leader along the lines of Germany. Corruption and inefficiency plague the country - but if these two plagues are eliminated, Nigeria can become a regional power and an economic powerhouse.