In Yemen, a Difficult Problem Requires a Difficult Solution

 

                                               Source: Human Rights Watch

   There is a reason why most media outlets do not cover the war in Yemen. Unlike the Syrian war, where humanitarian suffering can largely be blamed on Iranian-backed forces and an anti-American dictator, the blame for Yemen's humanitarian crisis falls squarely on the shoulders of Saudi Arabia. For three years, Saudi Arabia has been relentlessly bombing Yemen, directly killing around 15,000 civilians. The Saudis have also been blockading Yemen, resulting in food and medicine shortages for millions of Yemenis. And there is no doubt that the United States of America has played a role in this crisis. America has sold billions of dollars in arms to the Saudis, has provided aerial refueling for Saudi warplanes, and has provided intelligence on ground-based targets. To deny that America has played a role in the Yemen catastrophe is to deny reality. At the same time, however, no one wants to look like a pro-Iranian stooge, and no one wants to see a Houthi victory in Yemen.
      However, it isn't like the Saudis are genocidal maniacs who want to see every Yemeni citizen dead. Their goal is to reinstall Yemen's former president, Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, back into power. Hadi was ousted by Iranian backed Houthis in 2015, and Saudi Arabia is rightfully terrified of having an Iran-backed proxy state on their southern border. The Saudi campaign has nevertheless been a disaster. The Saudis are spending billions of dollars to fight the war, whereas Iran has sent comparatively small amounts of aid to the Houthis. Furthermore, friction within the Saudi-led coalition has led to embarrassing developments, such as when UAE-backed rebels seized Aden in January. The war has also led to terrible publicity for the Saudi regime, as the images of Yemen's horrifying situation circulate around the world.
      Nevertheless, the war does appear to be turning in favor of Saudi Arabia. Saudi-led forces are advancing towards the Houthi held port of Hoideidah, which is Yemen's lifeline. If Hoideidah's ports are destroyed, the humanitarian situation will get even worse, as there will be no good way to get large amounts of supplies into Yemen. Moreover, even after Hoideidah falls, the Saudis still need to retake Sana'a, Yemen's former capital city. This would result in even more brutal, street to street, guerilla fighting, and would likely result in the death of thousands. Even then, the Houthis could simply flee to the mountains of Yemen's north, and continue to wage a guerilla fight. It would take years to eradicate the Houthis from this territory - America still hasn't displaced the Taliban off of the mountainous Pakistan-Afghanistan border region. The Houthis are also known to place landmines when they withdraw from previously-held territory, which would only further increase the humanitarian cost.
    The outcome described above is highly undesirable. It would greatly exacerbate Yemen's humanitarian crisis and leave America's allies tied up in a protracted and costly war. Negotiation is needed, but peace talks have repeatedly broken down. The Houthis pulled out of a peace deal at the last minute in February, and a roadmap to peace which involves the continued existence of Yemen as a country likely does not exist. The best solution, most likely, is to split Yemen into two. A "Shiite Yemen" or "North Yemen" would control everything surrounding Sana'a, up to the Saudi border. A "South Yemen", which would be more powerful and thus able to counter the "Shiite Yemen" would control the rest of Yemen, and could potentially become a Saudi protectorate. This deal leaves the Houthis with their own, independent, Shiite state. However, the existence of a more powerful Sunni state nearby would severely deter any aggression by the Houthis, and lead to an extremely tense, but peaceful scenario.
    Obviously, splitting Yemen into two is not the solution in an ideal world. But we do not live in an ideal world - the Middle East is the furthest place on Earth from an ideal world. Realistically speaking, a divided but stable Yemen is better than a war-torn, starving wreck of a country. If America wants to balance peace with ensuring the security of our allies, splitting Yemen into two is ultimately the best way forward.