Mohammad Bin Salman - Reformer or Tyrant?

     Saudi Arabia's crown prince (and de-facto ruler), Mohammad Bin Salman, has largely been praised by the west for his attempts to modernize the desert kingdom. He has opened up the nation's first movie theater, granted women the right to drive, and has introduced an extremely ambitious "Vision 2030", which aims to move the Saudi economy off of its dependency on oil. This plan includes the construction of a gigantic industrial area known as "NEOM", which would serve as a hub to connect the three continents of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Of course, Saudi Arabia is still an illiberal regime - Salman has arrested women's rights activists and jailed those who pose a threat to his power - but his rule is still a marked improvement over the past 20 years.
     But Bin Salman faces a potentially enormous threat to his rule - that of the Islamist establishment. Saudi Arabia has been ruled by ultra-conservative Wahhabists since its founding. This establishment, for obvious reasons, opposes Mohammad Bin Salman's reformist policies, and it is entirely possible that this establishment could launch a coup against Bin Salman. Salman has two ways to deal with this, assuming he wants to keep reforming Saudi Arabia. He can either launch a total crackdown on the Wahhabi establishment - or he can appease them abroad, by using Saudi power to crush Shiites and spread Islamic fundamentalism. It appears that Bin Salman is trying to do both. Saudi Arabia has ramped up its activity in Yemen, and has recently captured a critical airport in Yemen. Saudi Arabia has also continued to export Wahhabi extremism in Europe, much to the chagrin of the Western world. Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, has also seen a rise in extremism that can largely be attributed to Saudi Arabia's funding of Islamist schools and mosques. Yet, Salman has also cracked down on Islamism in schools, and has vowed to "crush extremism". He has arrested dozens of clerics - not just ultra-conservative clerics, but also reformists, who could pose a potential threat to his own power. In the long-run, if Mohammad Bin Salman is entirely successful, he most likely will not need to export Islamic radicalism - he would have crushed the Islamist establishment by then.
     The behavior of Mohammad Bin Salman is awfully similar to that of the absolutist monarchs of Europe's 16th, 17th, and 18th centuries. Take the example of Louis XIV of France, for example, who launched his own brand of Catholicism in France in order to consolidate power in his country. Peter the Great also comes to mind - he wished to bring enlightened ideas of humanism and tolerance to Russia, and he did so by waging war and murdering anyone who opposed his rule. In the end, Bin Salman is ultimately a forger of his nation. He will go to any length in order to secure and further his own power, and he will ultimately use his power in order to do what he thinks will most benefit his nation.
     In the short term, Mohammad Bin Salman's actions will likely veer towards authoritarianism, as he seeks to eliminate all threats to his own power. Reform will take a temporary backseat to the crown prince's need to secure power. Once he does this, however, Saudi Arabia will veer back to the reformist path, granting more rights to women and homosexuals. While this occurs, the United States and the West cannot intervene - it is simply too delicate of a process for politicians thousands of miles away to act on. While the world may face some short-term pain, in the long run, a successful Bin Salman is ultimately better for the world at large.