SCO and the Future of Asia

         Source: SECTSCO

   While the media focuses on the general chaos of the G7 summit, another, equally as important summit took place - that of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The SCO is comprised of eight member states - China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,  and Tajikistan. This group includes two titans - India and China, as well as two other large states - Russia and Pakistan. Overall, the SCO accounts for around 44% of the global population and 25% of the global GDP.
   The summit kicked off with Xi Jinping welcoming both India's Narendra Modi and Pakistan's Manmoon Hussain - and while the recent history between India and Pakistan has been nothing but bloodshed and hostility, Jinping praised the "unity" of the occasion, and also issued a joint statement regarding the importance of free trade. The SCO summit also featured the strengthening of ties between Russia and China, as both Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping committed to a series of trade deals and economic agreements. However, the summit wasn't a complete victory for Xi Jinping. Notably, Prime Minister Modi refused to endorse the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative.  India has her own version of the OBOR project - the North-South corridor, which would link together India, Iran, and Russia.
    The SCO summit was important, but India's refusal to support the OBOR initiative is indicative of a larger shift within Asian geopolitics. The future of Asia in the 21st century will not be determined solely by the United States, but instead will largely be determined by the competition between India and China. While China attempts to expand its influence into Central Asia and Russia, India is allying herself with ASEAN - a group of Southeast Asian nations who greatly fear China's growing influence. While China and Japan clash over the Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, relations between India and Japan have never been better.
     A "cold war" situation between India and China is highly unlikely. I severely doubt that Indian backed proxies will be fighting Chinese backed proxies across Asia, and the relations between India and China will likely remain normal. The only true conflict between India and China exists because of border disputes, and while this had led to tensions (and even war) in the past, the benefits of trade relations between India and China outweigh any potential territorial gains. However, economic competition between the two juggernauts is likely. China is already a powerhouse when it comes to artificial intelligence, but India is rapidly attempting to catch up. China is an industrial superpower, and India is trying to achieve that same status. India and China are both investing in Africa, and both countries are poised to become economic superpowers as a result of their gargantuan population.
     The future of Asian geopolitics will be incredibly complicated, and the recent SCO summit only further demonstrates this. With numerous different interests, actors, and projects, and the rouge states of both North Korea and Iran present on the continent, it is abundantly clear that the Asia of 2018 is very different from the Asia of 1968. And, while Obama's pivot to Asia was an important first step, American foreign policy needs to be more focused on Asia. Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Libya, and Ukraine are all pressing issues, but in the long run, it will be the countries in East Asia and South Asia, and their respective actions, that determine the future of the world.