How do we stop the Russia-China-Iran Triangle?
In the previous post, I detailed the motives and logic behind the Russia-China-Iran triangle. Clearly, the power of this alliance is not in question. Russia has thousands of nukes, China has a billion-strong population pool, and Iran, with its proxy groups like Hezbollah, is a powerful player in the Middle East. Moreover, this alliance is held together by one thing - the realization that the United States, over all else, is the biggest opposition towards the various national interests of Russia, China, and Iran.
Removing the triangle's opposition towards the United States will not be possible. As the world's leading power, alliances will naturally form against the United States - this is a classic example of Westphalian principles. However, the triangular alliance must be countered - or the global consequences for America and democracy could be dire.
The easiest path is essentially an expansion of what the United States has been doing for the past two decades. We have exported arms to the Middle East in order to counter Iran. We have placed advanced missile defense systems in Eastern Europe in order to defend against the Russian threat. We have built up alliances with Japan, Australia, and India in order to counter China. However, more must be done - not with regards to the Middle East or Eastern Europe, but with regards to Asia. Quite simply, China's power is growing at a tremendous rate (a natural consequence of their billion-strong population) - one which the US alone cannot match. Sooner or later, unless a massive boom in US population occurs (unlikely given the restrictive immigration policy), the United States will simply slip behind China - economically and militarily. Nevertheless, the United States can have its own China as an ally - and no, I am not referring to the Republic of China, otherwise known as Taiwan. Instead, I am referring to India. India's population is booming, and India has a quite powerful and capable military. However, India is certainly lacking in some areas. Despite the best efforts of Prime Minister Modi, India's GDP per capita is still quite low, at 1700$ per capita. Infrastructure remains shoddy, with roads poorly constructed and a sprawling but deteriorating rail system which remains a relic of British rule. This is where the United States, with its vast economic resources and political clout, can come in. The US essentially needs to vastly increase its involvement in India, and replicate what China is doing in Pakistan. Building large amounts of ports and infrastructure, providing cheap loans, and selling military equipment to India will guarantee that India is both an ally of America, and that India is a strong country which can serve as an equalizer to China. India is the only country on Earth capable of countering Chinese influence in Asia within the long-run, and America is the only country (not named Russia or China) capable of building India up to the level of China.
Nevertheless, the Middle East is still important. Saudi Arabia has proven itself to be too weak to truly counter Iran - they are losing in Yemen, have lost in Syria, and have lost in Iraq. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi ideology has directly supported the rise of ISIS and Al-Qaeda - radical groups who have attacked America. Turkey is flaky, and their antagonism with the Kurds puts the United States in an awkward position - furthermore, demanding more from the Turks could result in Turkey further aligning with Russia - and losing Turkey would be a disaster. There is one country, however, which is strong enough to counter Iran. This country is Egypt. Egypt has a very strong military, and a population of around 100 million. Furthermore, Egypt is a staunch ally of Israel - a rare commodity in the Arab world. Egypt is also a secular, authoritarian state, with a vast Sunni majority - aspects which increase the stability of Egypt. In general, the US needs to vastly ramp up its partnership with Egypt, by both helping to fight the Muslim brotherhood, and possibly by aiding the Tobruk-based government in the Libyan civil war. In exchange, Egypt would provide forces to counter Iran in Iraq and Yemen. This is ultimately the best solution, both morally and politically, to the Iranian problem.
A final point to be made is that antagonism exists between Russia and China. The Soviet Union and China hated each other during the Cold War, and there is a shared historical enmity between the two powers. With Russia and China still having issues over Siberia and central Asia, as China rises, it will gradually grow more distant from Russia - and Russia will ultimately view China as more of an enemy, rather than the United States. However, this process will take quite a while - and in the meantime, the US must defend against the current reality of the Sino-Russian alliance.
Ensuring that Eurasia does not fall to Russia and China is an important task, and one which should define US foreign policy. Ultimately, the key lies in unlocking the potential of US allies such as India and Egypt. Otherwise, the consequences will be dire.
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